Word: bumpings
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...huge deal," says Marshal Cohen, retail analyst for the NPD Group, of the Inaugural exposure. "This is something you get once in a lifetime. J. Crew will take this and run with it." Betty Chen, an equity analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, predicts an immediate bump in J. Crew's children's clothing sales. She points to Michelle Obama's late-October appearance on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. On the heels of news reports that Sarah Palin hoarded a $150,000 wardrobe budget, Leno jokingly asked Michelle if she paid "$60-, $70,000 for that outfit." Obama bragged...
...Florida Keys ... You won't bump into Bogie here, but Ocean Pointe Suites in Key Largo, Fla., has a worthwhile "Reef Snorkeling Package," which includes two half-day snorkeling trips for two and equipment rental, plus one-hour kayak rental, in a package starting at $194 per night. If you want to stay above the surface, the hotel also has a "Keys Water Sports Package" with three choices to accompany the room: a half-hour Waverunner ride, a two-hour Hobie Wave sailboat rental or a four-hour kayak rental. Rates start at $189 per night. 500 Burton Drive (mile...
Meanwhile, a group of economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston had been noticing the same thing. "We were trying to understand why these numbers looked the way they did," says Burcu Duygan-Bump. Partly because of conversations the economists had with Fed staffers in the banking supervision division, the group came to believe the aggregate data was obscuring the underlying dynamics of the financial system. "If you say New England has a snowstorm with an average snowfall of two inches, that might not reflect the fact that Boston got ten inches and northern Maine got none," says Ethan...
...November, Duygan-Bump, Cohen-Cole and two other colleagues - Jose Fillat and Judit Montoriol-Garriga - put out a paper called "Looking Behind the Aggregates: A Reply to Facts and Myths About the Financial Crisis of 2008.'" In it, they argued that even though overall lending seemed to be robust, that could very well be the result of companies drawing down existing credit lines - agreements banks had made in better times and now couldn't renegotiate. In fact, there was plenty of anecdotal evidence in the business press to suggest that was exactly what was happening, that companies were locking...
...information," he says. "They've been remarkably unforthcoming about the rationale for their interventions." That seems to be a common sentiment. "The one thing they emphasize that we really agree with is they want policymakers to share more data that underlie their decisions," says the Boston Fed's Duygan-Bump. As a new Administration takes office and the process of spending hundreds of billions of dollars to fix the economy continues, it will be as important as ever to question whether the policy responses we come up with are the right ones - to make sure not only that they work...