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...line quickly becomes a blurry fan-shaped region, underscoring that as time marches forward, the variable being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution of outcomes, the better," says Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who chaired President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. "You're always keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty." The Bank of England is a big user of the fan chart when its economists talk about inflation forecasts. Plenty of U.S. agencies, like the Social Security Administration, use them...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...News can't stop reporting false story about ogling of teenager by • NAACP is passionately addressed by • shattering of teleprompter of • "sissy pitch" by at All-Star Game is compared by desperate right-wing Web sites to 2001 World Series strike by George W. Bush as yet more evidence, in case the recent sissy request by for Dijon mustard wasn't enough, that we were oh so much better off with a manly man like Bush in the White House...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: This Preposterous Week! Paul Slansky's News Index | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro has made an effort to reach out to the Obama Administration. On the U.S. side, much of the credit goes to Thomas Shannon, outgoing Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs. Shannon, appointed in 2005, worked to alter President George W. Bush's dark first-term relations with Latin America, when Chávez called Bush "the devil" in large part because the White House had tacitly backed the 2002 coup attempt. As a result, the Latin left has less anti-Yanqui fodder to ignite. Shannon's nominated successor, Arturo Valenzuela, should...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Honduran Crisis: Making Chums of Chávez and Obama? | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...Naturally, things changed after 9/11, when everyone wanted to know why the CIA couldn't just assassinate Osama bin Laden. There's little doubt that the Bush Administration asked CIA Director George Tenet to study that very question, even as a hypothetical - in other words, to do contingency planning...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The CIA Is Keeping Secrets. Hello? | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

That charge cannot be entirely dismissed as a conspiracy theory, for allegations of a U.S. covert program to destabilize Iran are hardly confined to paranoid mullahs. Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, former National Security Council officials in the Bush Administration, wrote in May that "the Obama Administration has done nothing to cancel or repudiate an ostensibly covert but well-publicized program, begun in President George W. Bush's second term, to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to destabilize the Islamic Republic...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Iran's Campaign Against Foreign Plots | 7/15/2009 | See Source »

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