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There are those who still insist on rational expectations theories and EMH as the best predictors of human and market behavior. Put simply, their point is that mistakes may be made, but economics as a field can only be useful with mathematical modeling as the central pillar of analysis. Based...

Author: By Pierpaolo Barbieri | Title: Volcanic Ash Allowing | 4/23/2010 | See Source »

Ironically, the challenge to this position is anything but new. It goes back to the German historical school of famed authors like Arnold Toynbee and Joseph A. Schumpeter. As John Maynard Keynes himself wrote in the preface to his masterpiece, “The difficulty lies, not in new ideas...

Author: By Pierpaolo Barbieri | Title: Volcanic Ash Allowing | 4/23/2010 | See Source »

The first is closely related to a philosophical idea popularized by Soros himself: reflexivity. Originally developed as a sociological concept, reflexivity incorporates the essential feedback loop between cause and effect into analysis. This is best illustrated through self-fulfilling prophecies; think about a bank run à la Northern Rock...

Author: By Pierpaolo Barbieri | Title: Volcanic Ash Allowing | 4/23/2010 | See Source »

The second idea further complicates the ideological position of traditional econometricians by borrowing heavily from physicist Werner Heisenberg’s principle of uncertainty. If the observer adds an element of uncertainty by the mere fact of observing, then fully determined prediction is not a matter of how much data...

Author: By Pierpaolo Barbieri | Title: Volcanic Ash Allowing | 4/23/2010 | See Source »

In some Latin-derived languages such as Spanish the term for “principle” is the same as that  for “beginning.” Hence “principio” can convey either idea, which suggests that perhaps the conceptual gulf...

Author: By Pierpaolo Barbieri | Title: Volcanic Ash Allowing | 4/23/2010 | See Source »

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