Word: calabresi
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Slobodan Milosevic may have backed down rather than expel a Western monitor, but he's winning the game. "Milosevic wants to keep terrorizing Kosovo's Albanians, and the West wants to stop him but isn't prepared to do that by bombing," says TIME Central Europe bureau chief Massimo Calabresi. "They're going to be so relieved that he's backed down over the monitors that they'll let him off the hook for last week's massacre...
...because the fundamental political problem -- the Albanians' demand for independence and the Serbs' refusal to grant even the limited autonomy favored by the West -- remains unresolved. "The KLA rebels are spoiling for a new fight, and Milosevic wants to scrap the cease-fire he agreed to last year," says Calabresi. "Everybody's now seen that the West is loath to intervene, so all the pieces are in place for a bloody spring...
...from over, Serb paramilitaries left the town of Malisevo and then suddenly swept back in a few hours later for a firefight with the KLA. "If the Serbs pull out enough troops, NATO will suspend its activation order for air strikes," says TIME Central Europe bureau chief Massimo Calabresi. "But that doesn't mean the Serbs won't come back two weeks later and retake the towns from which they've withdrawn...
...Still, the Serb pullout has -- at least for now -- stopped the terror campaign against Kosovar civilians, and may allow refugees to return to their homes as winter looms. "The Serb withdrawal has to be counted as a victory for Western pressure," says Calabresi. "Even if it's only a temporary...
...Even if Milosevic fulfills his promise of greater autonomy for the region, the deal could also be wrecked by the Kosovo Liberation Army, which demands full independence. "The KLA have been clobbered, but their members are still out there and still armed," says Calabresi. "They don't even have to wait for spring to go out and pop a couple of policemen, and it's actions of that type that prompted Milosevic's brutal crackdown in the first place...