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...referendum on independence next Jan. 9, and David Gressly, the U.N.'s regional coordinator for southern Sudan, admits, "There is a lot of discussion about whether southern Sudan will be ready for secession." Asked whether South Sudan is sufficiently prepared to go it alone, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, whose Carter Center promotes health and democracy in Sudan, replies simply: "No." (See pictures of Darfur descending into chaos...
...that's just the south. Secession there is likely to encourage other Sudanese independence fighters, like those in Darfur, or in the east of the country, or in the central-southern states of Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile. Carter downplays the likelihood of an African Yugoslavia splintering violently under pressure from multiple forces. Gration is less sure. "Disintegration is not a foregone conclusion," he says. "It's my view that we can stop this." So why is South Sudan even trying, when the price of failure could be war and the price of success might be Sudan's disintegration...
...Finally, there are doubts about the world's involvement. Obama's strategy is weakened by dissenters inside his Administration: Gration favors engagement; U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice wants more aggression. Such "mixed support" for engagement inevitably leads to "mixed results," says Carter. His support for the CPA and the general election it envisages is weakened by its transformation into a largely empty exercise by the pullout of most opposition parties, citing abuse, intimidation and violation of electoral law. (On April 6 a spokesman for the State Department hinted the U.S. favored postponing the vote until a more meaningful...
...Does southern Sudan have any hope of working? "I can't say the U.S. was ready when it got independence," notes Carter. Gressly argues South Sudan doesn't have to be fully formed at first, particularly if the global mission to build it continues, as he expects, for "10 to 15 to 20 years." And despite the World Bank holdup, there is progress. Juba may not look like much, but at least it looks like something. "There used to be nothing," says Itto. Some point to the Carter Center's spectacular recent advances in its fight against Guinea worm...
...pumped in the south. So, to its backers, this week's election represents a vital first step on what promises to be a fraught road. "Without this election, there is no way to go forward to the referendum and the culmination of the peace agreement," former U.S. President Jimmy Carter told TIME while monitoring the voting in South Sudan's capital, Juba. "I'm not predicting tragedy, but I don't have much doubt that if the entire CPA has to be abandoned, there will be conflicts re-emerging in this country...