Word: caucus
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...Democratic side is likely to be turnout: the more Iowans who turn out tonight to take part in the lengthy Democratic caucus process, the better it is likely to be for Obama, whose campaign is pitched in part to bringing into the Democratic fold a new generation of first-time voters and independents. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, is claiming to have secret, untapped, strength among female, senior and Asian American communities in the state...
...Indeed, the contest between Romney and Huckabee has been widely framed as a contest between Iowans' body parts: head (Romney) versus heart (Huckabee). Will most of the people who show up on caucus night be "heart" people - the loosely organized homeschoolers and evangelicals to whom Huckabee owes his front-runner status? Or will they be "head" people, precisely targeted and courted by the Romney campaign? (Staffers boast of having made over 36,000 phone calls to supporters in the past two days...
There'll be only two winners on caucus night - but nobody can afford to sound like a loser. After months, and in some cases years, of begging Iowans for their support, the candidates will finally get some real results tonight. And what they say about the outcome can define or derail the rest of their campaign...
...John Edwards, meanwhile, has spent more time in the state than anyone in either party and remains a popular second choice among likely caucus goers who don't favor him as their first choice, a key indicator in a process that can reward also-rans when third-tier candidates don't meet the 15% threshold at most caucus sites. "Its not just a question of who turns their voters out," said Joe Trippi, Edwards's campaign manager. "It's a question of who knows how to work the caucus system...
...While much of the media attention is focused on the still-imponderable outcome of the Obama/Clinton/Edwards fight, the grudge match between Romney and Huckabee was no less intriguing. Romney's camp claims to have made 12,000 calls to likely caucus-goers on Tuesday and another 22,000 on Wednesday, praying that organization will trump enthusiasm. David Woolcock, a financial and marketing analyst, told TIME at a Romney rally this week that he started as a Huckabee supporter because of his religious bent but came around to appreciating Romney's data-driven decision making style. "I'm a secular person...