Word: caucus
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Because of this hyper-awareness, Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers have become genuine wonks, able to query presidential hopefuls on the smallest details of their policies. As a group, they're also able to temper their own liberal inclinations. "Jimmy Carter was not liberal. He was probably one of the most moderate candidates," Bender says. "Even though caucuses are somewhat liberal, the focus on electability somewhat mitigates their liberal orientation...
There are five categories of caucus-goers, according to Bender, and many voters span several categories: the party core; the union and association members; those who support a particular candidate; those dragged along by voters in the first three groups; and the merely curious. "The thing about the 'drag' and the 'curious' is that it's really hard to poll beforehand who they are because they don't know who they are until just before the caucuses," Bender says. Even inside the caucus room the 'drag' are unpredictable because they are so prone to changing horses...
Once the total number of caucus-goers have been counted and thresholds for the candidates have been established, the first round of jockeying begins. Groups supporting each of the candidates begin sweet-talking their friends and neighbors into joining their side, if only to give their candidate a shot at the second round. "There are all kinds of complicated dynamics going on," Bender says. "It's always been that way and I think people enjoy...
Once the weaker candidates are knocked out, "the serious group persuasion begins, where caucus attendees who are not in groups large enough to be viable are courted," says Bruce Gronbeck, a political science professor at the University of Iowa and co-editor of the book Presidential Campaigns and American Self Images. Sometimes deals are made - as in 2004, when Dennis Kucinich, lacking viability, threw his support behind John Edwards (this year, he's getting behind Barack Obama). Those bargains are tenuous, though, and as unpredictable as the caucus-goers themselves. Unions, for example, often succeed in getting voters to turn...
...hears caucus-goers mention Biden's name wistfully at events for Clinton, Obama or Edwards. Biden's a politician with a lot of experience that many voters wish had more money and little bit of that youthful energy that symbolizes change. Still, caucus-goers flock to hear him, eager to ask the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman about Iraq and Pakistan, Iran and North Korea...