Word: cbo
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...point of view may make him an outlier. But there is no denying the fact that there has been almost no time spent in the Congressional conversation about what could happen to the budget if either the revenue or expense assumptions at the core of the Administration or CBO analyses are wrong by a substantial margin. The projections of GDP growth only have to be a percent or two too low for deficits to go up by hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars over the next decade. Not a single page in the Administration or CBO documents describes...
...fair, it is unlikely that this is the route that the president will ultimately take. For starters, the CBO projections, on out years, have a significant built-in margin of error. Still, in an interview Friday, Peter Orszag, Obama's Budget Director, admitted that long-term deficits projected by the CBO "would lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratios in a manner that would ultimately not be sustainable." He was not alone. As soon as the report came out, even Democrats who support the President's policies said that the budget would have to be rethought. "We have...
...jarring news Friday, when the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its preliminary analysis of Obama's plans for the nation. In one of the first non-partisan, independent reviews of his administration's economic vision, the Obama White House pretty much got a failing grade - not because the President's advisers were bad at math, but because the CBO found that the economy is expected to recover so slowly as to make the Obama policy proposals unsustainable. The new "Era of Responsibility," it turned out, runs into big trouble with just a slight long-term decline in economic projections...
...budget was drafted, and than several other economic forecasts anticipate. Under the Administration's plans, that means an explosion in government debt after the current recession ends, with sustained deficits even larger than the ones caused in the 1980s by the policies of Ronald Reagan. The national debt, the CBO calculated, would go from 41% of the size of the nation's economic output in 2008 to 82% of the economic output in 2019. In other words, if the CBO estimates play out without a change in policy, Obama is on track to accomplish exactly what he promised to change...
...Congress and the White House now face a limited set of options, especially as they struggle to maintain the president's priorities, which include more spending for education, health care and energy reform. They can pare back the spending plans, propose further tax increases, or hope that the CBO got the projections wrong and the economy does not deteriorate any faster than already expected. "I think it's easy to exaggerate fluctuations in the deficit projections, which are driven by small changes in underlying assumptions," Orszag told reporters. "I also recognize that despite that, the CBO numbers are going...