Word: chechenization
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...Chechnya's experience with autonomy dashes this romantic longing for independence. After Russia was badly mauled in the first Chechen war earlier this decade, the peace settlement gave Chechnya five years of autonomy before a referendum on independence. Despite the election of a moderate president, the country quickly descended into chaos as warlords carved out fiefdoms and law and order almost completely broke down. Foreign aid workers were captured, several were beheaded and the notorious Chechen mafia had a field day in the chaos...
...consequences of Chechen independence would not only be misery for the Chechens but a destabilization of the already unsteady Caucasus. During the past few years of autonomy, Chechnya became home to several foreign Islamic fundamentalist warlords, who have taken advantage of the confusion and abundance of arms to use it as a base for spreading rebellion in neighboring provinces. Russians often point to the Chechen government's ties to organized crime, and warn that an independent Chechen state could quickly become a conduit for drugs and smuggled arms. There is little doubt that that a Chechnya that wins its independence...
...keeping Chechnya under Russian control is stricken with almost as many problems. The devastation the Russian army has left in its wake has done irreparable damage to any sort of legitimacy the Russian government might have had to rule the Chechens. Russia recently tried to organize a loyalist government--the only Chechen who would co-operate with them was a former mayor of Grozny in Russian prison following his conviction for embezzlement. In every shelled village, everyone who is killed or maimed leaves behind several family members who fiercely hate the Russian army and its rule...
Hopes that the U.S. could somehow influence Russian policy are equally naive. The war has proved exceedingly popular in Russia, and the only two politicians to oppose it are a catspaw of the Chechen mafia and Grigory Lavlinsky, the hopeless neo-liberal whose principled stand got him denounced as a traitor to the Russian cause. As the generals leading the war make veiled threats to politicians who might oppose the war, the talk of cutting off foreign aid and diplomatic pressure is an exercise in unreality. At present, the only U.S. policy that could bring real comfort to the Chechen...
...Chechen conundrum has no easy solutions. We must be wary of sliding into the classic response of seeing an oppressed minority and leaping forward, enthusiastic they they should have their own state. Nor should we relax, confident that Russia's reconquest of the province will restore stability. The only sure consequence of this war is that Chechnya will be destabilized for years and possibly decades to come. Perhaps the West can serve a useful role when the fighting has ended in advising or reconstruction. Regardless, for the corpses of Russian conscripts and Chechen civilians mouldering amidst the harsh beauty...