Word: chechenization
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Imagine losing the Vietnam War, then going back for a replay. That's what Russia appears to be doing in Chechnya. Three years after suffering one of the most humiliating defeats in its history at the hands of a small, improvised army of Chechen guerrillas, Russia last week was once again in a state of undeclared war with the mountainous republic. And the conflict is about to escalate dramatically. The first Russian ground forces have crossed the frontier, thrusting into two northern Chechen districts, while Russian commandos--the Spetsnaz--are reportedly moving into the northeast. In keeping with the best...
...Russian military has clamped tight censorship on its operations, but political leaders have difficulty containing their glee at the prospect of hitting back at the unruly, predominately Islamic state that has been infuriating them for the past five years. Officially, they have been goaded past endurance by alleged Chechen acts of terrorism, including the spectacular bombings of four apartment buildings in Moscow and elsewhere last month. But Chechnya's determination to secede from Russia is equally a target. When asked about Russian incursions into Chechnya, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the latest in President Boris Yeltsin's revolving cast of legislative...
...Kremlin's thinking, starting with the notion that a second Chechnya war would be more winnable than the first one. Three years ago, a demoralized and disastrously led Russian army was savaged by Chechnya's hastily assembled guerrillas. The only obvious difference now is that there are more Chechen fighters. Since the bloody debacle of 1994-'96, the Russian army's disintegration has continued. Budget cuts and corruption have undermined its strength and reduced training to a bare minimum, while morale has dropped even lower. But by some bizarre process of mental alchemy, the top Russian brass feels...
...Moscow, and they claim to have learned from their previous failures. More important, they claim to have learned from NATO's almost casualty-free successes in Kosovo. Last week, before a blackout descended on military news, Moscow TV carried cockpit footage of a Russian smart missile destroying its Chechen target. It'll be a nice short offensive, General Valery Manilov of the General Staff declared cheerfully. If the troops move "energetically," he predicted, "we won't have to winter there...
Russian commanders have, in fact, learned nothing at all since the first Chechnya war. Officers and NCOs who took part in battles last month against Chechen rebels in western Dagestan described their own commanders as corrupt, ill-organized and incompetent. Sources close to the Spetsnaz, the best-trained and most combat-experienced soldiers, say they lost officers to misdirected Russian "precision bombings" in Dagestan. They also speak of corrupt commanders who allowed Chechen leader Basayev to buy his way out of Dagestan after a failed offensive, and of helicopter-gunship crews who were bribed by the Chechens to hit empty...