Word: chechnya
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Russia's generals have learned some hard lessons. After the blood-soaked debacle of the last attempt to subdue Chechnya during 1994-1996, war gamers went back to the doctrine of the ferocious Russian who first conquered the Caucasus, 19th century general Alexei Yermolov: use siege warfare rather than frontal assault. Make slow advances under cover of heavy guns and bombardment. Avoid close encounters with a lightly armed but fearsome enemy. Applying these principles in their current campaign, which began in late September, Moscow's generals aimed to grind down the rebel force until the remnants would flee back into...
Just that afternoon in Moscow, Russia's generals had boldly predicted imminent victory. The secret of their success, they said, was the change in tactics. Grozny would be taken "in a matter of days," declared General Valeri Manilov of the General Staff, and all of Chechnya would fall to Russia in a month or two. A day later, the military denied that any foray into Grozny had even taken place. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, chief sponsor and political beneficiary of the war, dismissed reports of heavy casualties as "complete nonsense...
...Chechen fighters and strafe their village hideouts, until they fell back and Russian troops could move safely forward again. Since late September, a Russian force that now numbers 100,000--just about every viable fighting man in the armed forces--has managed to retake control of nearly 60% of Chechnya. For more than a month, it has laid siege to Grozny, pounding the capital with artillery and aerial strikes while ground troops slowly tighten the noose...
...generals rightly fear body bags. Heavy troop losses drove them from Chechnya last time and could provoke a drop in support for this war any time. As of last week, the Russians admitted to 400 dead soldiers. But U.S. intelligence, which has been tracking the numbers closely, believes the death toll had already neared 1,000 before the slaughter last week...
This is the fifth military campaign mounted against the rebellious republic in this century. The Chechen problem is never solved; it merely goes into remission. Most revolts have been suppressed by a combination of massive force on one side and a breakdown of leadership on the other. Chechnya's elected President, Aslan Maskhadov, continues to call for a political settlement--and so do Washington and the Europeans. But Putin and his generals seem adamant...