Word: chernenko
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...these negotiations, Reagan has failed to understand many of the basic disarmament policies of his government. Why should Gromyko take us seriously? Why, indeed, given the record, should we take the sudden about-face in U.S. approach, Reagan's soothing words, and the apparent pell-mell scramble for a Chernenko-Reagan summit seriously...
...strange vignettes only confirmed what most Western analysts have suspected: Chernenko is in precarious health. In an effort to determine the extent of his illness, CIA experts have been running the Soviet-made clip of his Sept. 6 appearance through a sophisticated film analyzer, frame by frame. Their conclusion: snippets were cut from the film to eliminate some of Chernenko's more obvious stumbles and trembling. Although an exact prognosis cannot be made from a piece of celluloid, it is clear, says a senior British diplomat, that Chernenko "does not look like a man with too long...
...real problem lies in deciding what relation, if any, exists between the state of Chernenko's health and the way decisions are being made in the twelve-man Soviet Politburo. Specialist opinion varies widely, but there is broad agreement that the Kremlin is preoccupied by the recurring problem of succession. The process is more complicated and painful than usual because it is the third period of uncertainty in two years (Leonid Brezhnev died in November 1982, Yuri Andropov last February). The upshot, says Harvard University Professor Richard Pipes, is "a profound crisis and lack of direction." Kremlinologist Marshall Goldman...
Others take a slightly more sanguine view. Says a Western diplomat in Moscow: "I really think Chernenko is there just to keep the political mechanism going until they decide what to do. For the moment, it looks like a collective leadership with everyone very much in charge of his own portfolio." According to Middlebury College President Olin Robison, who has had frequent dealings with high-level Soviet officials, collective leadership in the Politburo has gradually grown more diffuse since Chernenko took office. Says he: "There is no longer any strong personality at the center. The people around Chernenko are stronger...
However complicated the Politburo's internal state of affairs, Chernenko's public appearances indicate an effort on the part of the leadership to keep his image at center stage. Indeed, some analysts speculate that such recent Soviet actions as the harsh treatment of Dissident Andrei Sakharov and the pressure brought to bear on East German Party Leader Erich Honecker to cancel a trip to West Germany are similar bids to reinforce the regime's monolithic authority. Another such incident may have been the sudden announcement two weeks ago that Moscow's outspoken Military Chief of Staff...