Word: china
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...Just as all politics is local (to a degree), all diplomacy is domestic (to a large extent). China's dramatic growth may have increased its ability to be less deferential toward the U.S. But when officials loudly proclaim that foreign leaders should steer clear of the Dalai Lama, lash out against Clinton's "information imperialism" or stoke popular indignation about Taiwan, their motivation is largely a desire to play the nationalism card as effectively as possible at home, and it is as much a sign of insecurity as it is one of bravado. They see a value in deflecting criticism...
...doesn't necessarily represent a coherent policy. Several instances of the Chinese government acting "tougher" could just be discrete events. Rather than read too much into the intensity of recent rhetoric about Clinton's speech and the arms deal, we should watch to see whether, in the coming weeks, China goes along with or tries to block American efforts to put pressure on Iran...
...Whenever we think about how China's rise is sending shock waves through the international order, we should remember that this has happened before. From the 1890s to the 1910s, a continent-sized country was ascending. It claimed to hate imperialism yet wasn't above extending its control over territory. It had a tendency to go it alone, and made other powers nervous. That country was the U.S. (See pictures of China...
...Beijing's determination to keep its growth rate high and its military up to date limits its ability to alienate other world powers. A boycott, say, of U.S. weapons suppliers over Taiwan (as Beijing has threatened) would simply mean China buying more from European competitors. As satisfying to Chinese jingoists as talk of future military action against Taiwan may be, the flow of Taiwan investment into China is crucial to the mainland's economic health. As, of course, is trade between China and the U.S., which also have a body of water between them and economies growing ever closer...
...While Washington and Beijing seem very much at odds just now, we shouldn't let their current state blind us to how intertwined they have become, nor to parallels between America's rise at the start of the last century and China's at the start of this one. Whether they like it or realize it, their relationship is truly one thing too big to fail...