Word: china
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There is reason to believe such eye-popping spending can continue. As more regions of China's vast hinterland join in its amazing economic boom, more and more of the country's 1.3 billion people can afford cars, refrigerators and flat-panel TVs items not too long ago considered luxuries for a fortunate few. Chen Baogen, Xi'an's mayor, says his city of eight million had lagged behind towns on the export-oriented coast, but now incomes are growing to the point where consumption is taking off. In the first nine months of 2009, retail sales in the city...
...whether or not they will buy remains an open, and crucial, question. Even though Chinese are becoming wealthier, they are actually saving a greater percentage of that new wealth. Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad figures that China's average urban household saving rate reached 28% of disposable income in 2008 - 11 percentage points higher than in 1995. As a result, the role consumer spending plays in China's economy continues to head in the wrong direction. Private consumption accounted for a mere 35% of GDP in 2008, down from 46% in 2000. China's ratio stands at about half that...
...problem, says Hedrick-Wong and other economists, is that the average Chinese still faces too much uncertainty about the future to spend more freely. China's social safety net systems remain weak, forcing Chinese families to squirrel away large sums to care for elderly parents, pay rising medical bills and prepare for retirement. Aware of the problem, the Chinese government has been taking steps to beef up welfare programs to alleviate the financial burden faced by Chinese families and loosen their purse strings. Beijing, for example, is undertaking a three-year, $125 billion program to build hospitals and clinics...
...economies, placing "a cap," Huang says, on consumer spending. The problem is that income growth among rural dwellers and migrant workers badly trails that of residents of the major urban centers creating a mass of 900 million people who still tend to be very heavy savers. Huang suggests that China needs to act aggressively to boost rural incomes, by, for example, extending banking systems deeper into the countryside to give farmers better access to credit to start small businesses. MasterCard's Hedrick-Wong argues that China should also open up service industries now dominated by large, state-owned companies, such...
Such efforts will take years to bear fruit, however time the global economy may not be able to afford. Economists agree that China and the United States must alleviate the imbalances that contributed to the current crisis if the world economy is to find renewed, and healthier, growth. China saves too much and spends too little, leading to giant surpluses and hard currency reserves, while the U.S. saves too little and spends too much, creating giant deficits and debt. Unless China can transform its citizens from savers to spenders, the reform of the entire world economic system could suffer...