Word: china
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...Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is probably a more realistic reflection of expectations about the direction of China's economy. It advanced only 45.8% from January to July this year. The sell-off in Shanghai trimmed that gain to 35.6% as of Aug. 31 - a strong gain, but hardly the stuff of bubbles...
...question on investors' minds is whether the recovery is for real. While China's GDP growth was better than expected, at 7.1% year on year in the six months to June, part of that expansion was fueled by an astounding 201% increase in bank lending. The central bank started tightening in July, when new loans totaled just $52 billion - down sharply from $224 billion in June. The August number may come in at an even lower $36 billion...
...Shanghai. The danger is that policymakers may tighten too much, discouraging not only speculation but also business growth and consumer spending, which could precipitate a hard landing for the economy. So far, there's scant evidence for collapse. The latest Purchasing Managers Index numbers, released Sept. 1, show China's manufacturers are continuing to rally. The index rose to 54.0 from 53.3 in July, marking the sixth consecutive month the index has been in expansion territory (over...
...Some argue that overtightening is not the fundamental problem, however. Former Morgan Stanley star analyst Andy Xie, now an independent economist, questions the quality of China's recent growth. "The present economic 'recovery' began in February as inventories were restocked and was pushed up by the spillover from the asset-market revival," he contends in a recent opinion piece in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper. "These two factors cannot be sustained beyond the third quarter...
...definitely in the minority. Discounting the stock market's fall, Goldman Sachs has just boosted its growth forecast for China to 9.4% this year from 8.3% previously, and to 11.9% in 2010, from 10.9%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is sticking to its forecast of 8.7% growth...