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...Nonetheless, the deal will be costly for Citi. In order to exit TARP, the bank will have to sell $20.5 billion in new shares. Analysts estimate the stock sale will lower the company's earnings per share by about 20%. "One of the basic problems for [Citigroup's] valuation is that it has too many shares as a result of its many rounds of capital raising and exchange offers," says analyst David Hensler, who follows Citi for research firm Creditsights...
...raising all the capital to pay back TARP won't improve Citi's balance sheet either. In fact, it will do the opposite. Bove estimates that TARP repayment will lower the company's Tier 1 capital ratio to just over 11%, from a recent 12.8%. What's more, with the elimination of the government guarantee of Citi's riskiest assets, which could expose the bank to as much as $250 billion in additional losses, the bank's Tier 1 ratio will sink further, to 10%, according to Hensler. (See 10 big recession surprises...
...Christopher Whalen, managing director of research firm Institutional Risk Analytics, thinks the problem with Citi's repayment has less to do with capital ratios and more to do with waning confidence in the bank around the world. In early December, the investment arm of the government of Kuwait sold its entire investment stake in Citigroup. "Foreign investors like to see the government's stake in Citi," says Whalen. "If the government gets out, investors around the world will flee...
...Finally, the deal Citi struck with the government may indicate to investors that the bank is actually in worse shape than many thought. To exit TARP, Bank of America was required to raise $18.5 billion in new capital, or about 40% of the $45 billion in capital it repaid the government. Other banks have had to raise as much as half of the amount they want to pay back the government in new capital. Citigroup, though, is required to raise more than 100% of what it wants to pay back - $20.5 billion in new capital, half a billion dollars more...
...Letting Bank of America repay its TARP funds was ridiculous, but letting Citi out is even more problematic," says Whalen...