Word: citigroup
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...Here are the most likely scenarios, in no particular order, that could unfold for Citigroup and its shareholders in the next few days...
...Most analysts believe Citigroup can survive its current market woes, though probably not without some changes. In a report out on Friday, Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo, who has been a long-time bear on Citi, says the company has adequate capital to survive. When you factor in the $25 billion Citi got from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, Mayo estimates the bank has as much as $100 billion in cash cushion...
...Citi's lending business has actually performed relatively well in this environment. In the third quarter, the company said it had $5 billion in loans on which customers were no longer making payments. In all, Citigroup has set aside $24 billion for loan loss reserves. For most firms, that's a lot of IOUs to go bad. But for Citi it's peanuts. In fact, $24 billion is just under 3.5% of Citi's overall loan book of $718 billion. And that's not a bad charge-off rate during a time when sub-prime mortgage loans are defaulting...
...could replace Pandit? Robert Rubin, the former Treasury Secretary and head of Goldman Sachs, could be one choice. He is currently a director and senior council at the firm. But Rubin has been at Citigroup for a number of years, and it's not clear he has been helpful so far in stopping the losses. What's more, with a Democrat headed back to the White House his eye may be on Pennsylvania Ave. and not Park Ave., where Citi's executive offices are located...
...months, Citigroup has been dogged by concerns about the quality of the loans on its books. Citi was, after all, one of the nation's largest sub-prime lenders, not just to homebuyers but through its credit card division as well. This week, the fears have centered on the quality of its corporate loans, and to a lesser extent its credit card business...