Word: civilian
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...Macedonian security forces are not well-equipped or trained for an anti-guerrilla operation to drive the guerrillas out of their strongholds in a series of villages in the mountains, and it would be a disaster for President Trajkovski if his forces suffered heavy losses. And if they inflicted civilian casualties in the villages where the rebels are hiding, his new government would collapse, because the ethnic-Albanian parties would walk out - and that could be the prelude to the breakup of Macedonia...
...rebels have said they intend to stay in their positions in the hills, which the government has said is unacceptable. Trajkovski remains cautious because an offensive is a high-risk strategy. The situation could quickly deteriorate either if his own forces suffer losses, or if there are civilian casualties. So he postponed taking action, hoping that he won't have to. But with no sign of retreat by the rebels - there were even reports of skirmishes last night - Trajkovski faces a serious dilemma. Risky or not, he will have to do something in the next several days...
...position. So there is still a question mark over whether the unity of the new government will hold. A lot depends on whether the government forces can mount a successful operation against rebel strongholds in the mountains. If it turns out to be a mess - either because of civilian casualties or because of substantial losses by the Macedonian security forces - the government may not survive. But the government's credibility is also threatened if it hesitates too long, because its very first act was to issue an ultimatum to the rebels. So the coalition government could fail, either...
...resolution on Iraq - which would be impossible to pass given the level of division in the Security Council over Iraq - the proposals are designed to streamline and alter the requirements of the existing sanctions package to ease the way for Baghdad to import a wider range of civilian goods - the details have not yet been made available, and much will depend on how far a concept called "dual use" is applied on the list of prohibited items. Iraq has previously been blocked, for example, from importing simple painkillers and pencils on the grounds that some of their ingredients could have...
...Arroyo was ousted. According to diplomats and military sources, one faction wanted Estrada restored to the presidency. (He is now under arrest at a military base 50 km outside Manila on charges of plundering the state coffers.) Another group wanted to forget Estrada and install its own military-civilian junta. If the plot succeeded, says Justice Secretary Hernani Perez, the rebels probably would have killed Estrada and Arroyo. Another mistake the plotters made was using the tried-and-true methods of bribing top men in uniform. Says one Western diplomat: "If the instigators had appealed to the mid-ranking officers...