Word: civilizations
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There are worrying signs, in fact, that Lebanon may be closer to a total meltdown than at any time since the 1975-90 civil war. An Arab diplomat told TIME that General Michael Suleiman, the commander in chief of the Lebanese Army, recently admitted that his troops would be able to contain a series of demonstrations "for only a few weeks." If Hizballah organizes protests around the country similar to those in Beirut last week, "We will not be able to cope," Suleiman reportedly said. His concern was that because many of his troops are Shi'ite, they would refuse...
...nightmare scenario is that Hizballah's show of strength could provoke a backlash against its mostly Shi'ite supporters by Lebanon's Sunni Muslim, Christian and Druze communities. If that happens, most Lebanese believe the situation could quickly escalate into all-out civil war. As a river of pro-Hizballah demonstrators flowed toward Siniora's besieged compound last week, poultry seller Ahmad Sahd, 65, wept. "These youngsters didn't live through the civil war. I did. And it looks like it's starting again...
...that as time passes, resentments toward Nasrallah are likely to build. That may be the main reason that Hizballah is again girding for war. The next round could be even uglier. While most of the other communities still have stockpiles of arms stashed away from the days of the civil war, Hizballah's force is stronger and better organized than its rivals, say Beirut-based diplomats. But the various players in Lebanon may find outside backers. The Christians could again find support from the Israelis; and the Saudis, who are alarmed at the growing Shi'ite influence in Lebanon through...
...both Tehran and Damascus. The commission agreed that the political turmoil inside Iraq could only be sorted out with the cooperation of neighboring countries, particularly Syria, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have the strongest ties to the Shi'ite and Sunni groups propelling Iraq ever deeper into civil...
...that points to the biggest weaknesses in any rescue plan. Whether it is the Baker approach or whatever the White House decides to call its own, events in Iraq could easily make any plan for diplomacy and withdrawal irrelevant in the face of a weak central government, a deepening civil war and widespread violence. A commission official put it this way: "What we have produced is a plan for December. We have no idea what things are going to look like in February...