Word: colorado
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Over the past decade, Colorado has become Democrats' best shot at a boothold in the once reliably Republican Mountain West. Democrats now control the governorship and both houses in the state legislature and have a good chance of picking up a second Democratic seat in the U.S. Senate next month. The shift came about largely because the state GOP continued to nominate right-wing candidates, while Democrats recruited centrist politicians who often combined prosecutorial backgrounds with aw-shucks demeanors. And it is because neither McCain nor Obama fits either mold that the state is even close this year...
...economic concerns here, which may provide a new twist to the campaign, giving the pragmatic voters of downscale Arapahoe County an unexpected and decisive role in November. In recent days, voters in that demographic have started to break toward Obama. "If John McCain does not carry the state of Colorado," says Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, "his path to the White House gets awfully darn narrow...
...general, Colorado and its high-tech, adventure-travel economic base are somewhat insulated from the kinds of industrial shifts that have walloped Rust Belt states. But the exodus of wealth from Arapahoe has made it more vulnerable to economic downturn. In 2006 the county's foreclosure rate was five times the national average, and it's still one of the highest in the state. "When a flattening economy like we're experiencing now comes along," says Ritter, "they're going to be hit harder...
...sensitivity of Arapahoe voters to economic changes makes them unusually pragmatic. Although generally frugal about government spending, they support high levels of education funding across party lines and voted to suspend the Taxpayers' Bill of Rights that Colorado adopted in the 1990s after the measure gutted many public services. Like most other Coloradans, Arapahoe residents spend a lot of time in their cars and trucks. As gas prices skyrocketed, politicians have scrambled to respond. Both Obama and Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall altered their stands on offshore drilling over the summer. And one of the McCain ads in heavy rotation...
...over 65. As for the voters of Arapahoe, the number that the Obama campaign might want to seal in amber is 21. That's the advantage Obama currently holds over McCain (59% to 38%) among voters making less than $50,000 a year. In 2004 lower-wage voters in Colorado split their votes evenly between Kerry and Bush. The Obama campaign would be all too happy to claim the larger percentage this time around...