Word: consensus
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...regional treaty alliance in place, no new diplomatic structures like NATO in Europe, for example, that could reflect or bring order to the shifting power lines of the Asian 21st century. Last year, Japanese prime minister Taro Aso floated the idea of an "arch of freedom," a security consensus threading together democracies like India, Japan and Australia, but its obvious anti-Chinese subtext meant the notion gained little traction. "Nobody is going to sign up to an actual containment policy," says McDevitt of the Center for Naval Analyses...
...outbreak, estimating that about 23,000 people had been infected in Mexico by late April, with a fatality rate of about 0.4%. Those numbers come with a wide margin for error on either side, and there are still holes in the epidemiology that need to be filled, but the consensus is that the WHO's handling of H1N1 was reasonable. "Our research indicates that the WHO was justified in its actions in the early days," says Christophe Fraser, an epidemiologist at Imperial College and the lead author of the paper. "There was no overreaction there...
...know a fair amount about South Africa's new President as a man. Jacob Zuma has six wives and 19 children, and he has been tried for rape (acquitted) and corruption (case dropped). His party, the African National Congress, sells him as an affable consensus-builder and a champion of the dispossessed - and on both counts, it's true, he scores. But we know very little about him as a policy-maker. Zuma has consistently refused to answer questions of policy, describing himself as a cipher for his party. After he was elected President last month, that argument became...
...comforted by the results. That's because two different scenarios are used to stress test the balance sheets of financial institutions: baseline and adverse scenario. The baseline was designed to represent the consensus at the time in which the plan was presented. Unfortunately, current macroeconomic conditions are already worse than the adverse scenario (which is closer to the new consensus) for all the three variables of the test -unemployment, real GDP and home prices. (See TIME's "25 People to Blame for the Financial Collapse...
...answer to the first question is no. Recapitalization needs will likely exceed what the current stress tests suggest since macroeconomic conditions are bound to be worse than the consensus anticipates, making the adverse scenario of the stress tests look mild. At this point in time, banks are still facing well over $1 trillion in losses over the next couple of years, even if low short-term interest rates make new loans very profitable. Moreover, according to RGE Monitor, real U.S. GDP growth will inch back into positive rates only toward the end of 2009 rather than at the beginning...