Word: coppers
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...over the last several months, something funny has been happening in the commodities trade. After spectacular plunges, the prices of oil, copper, palm oil and others are rallying. This shouldn't be happening given the parlous state of the world economy. The International Monetary Fund this week cut its global growth forecast for 2009, predicting GDP would contract by 1.3%, the most severe recession since the 1930s. Yet oil is some 50% more expensive now than in December. Palm oil, which is used in a wide variety of manufactured foods, has surged by about 50% this year. "The only area...
Since new oilfields and copper mines take years to get into full production, lower investment today causes tighter supply down the road. At the same time, there is every reason to believe that emerging markets such as China and India will continue to be ever more voracious consumers of iron ore, oil and food as their economies get bigger and their citizens richer. Palm oil prices, for example, have been rising of late partly because demand from India, with its population of 1 billion, is holding up. In March, China imported a record amount of iron ore and coal, while...
...work - Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent - and you know why the left-wing, anti-U.S. Chávez would present it to a U.S. President. The book's thesis is that Spain, then Britain, the U.S. and Latin oligarchs ransacked Latin American resources, from copper to crude, bleeding the region of its natural wealth and its sovereign dignity. But even if you don't subscribe to its Marxist-tinged polemic, The Open Veins is one of the best introductions to the longstanding Latin grievances that keep producing populist leaders like...
...could give China more influence over the price. During the boom years, when Chinese companies' appetite for virtually every metal was voracious, they got stuck with stiff price increases. The deal could give Chinalco, which already owns 9.3% of Rio, better access to the company's choicest deposits of copper, iron ore and bauxite. The secretary-general of China's Iron and Steel Association, Shan Shanghua, has already hinted that Chinese buyers could have some additional clout. This rankles some of Rio's major shareholders. "It's up to Rio to convince us that this does not transfer key pricing...
Considering how far mineral prices have fallen, some analysts believe Chinalco might actually be paying a premium for Rio Tinto assets. But BOC International's Xu says, "The price is much, much lower for the assets--particularly iron ore and copper--than it would have been just six months ago. This seems like a pretty good deal." And as long as commodity prices are depressed, Chinese companies will be Going Out, cash in hand, ready...