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...paper by Harvard Business School professor Gregory M. Barron explores the role of experience in promoting the gambler’s fallacy, a notion that chance and randomness correct themselves in the short term. The study, written by Barron and Harvard doctoral student Stephen Leider, argues that the fallacy has a heightened effect on the decision-making of people who experience a series of events in real time versus people who receive a complete description of the same events at a later point in time. According to Barron, the fallacy applies in many situations, including simple scenarios such as casino...
...play up to 36 holes a day, but then again, this is not the spring. “The course is a tremendous course, very difficult,” Bode said. “The greens are very fast, so if your approach shot is not in the correct place, it’s very easy to make bogies. Compared to the field, everyone in the top five did well.” Every team had the play through the conditions, so the team took it in stride. “We didn’t have much...
...times, as well: his utter caution in the debates, his decision not to zing McCain or even to challenge him very much, led me to assume - all three times - that he hadn't done nearly as well as the public ultimately decided he had. McCain was correct when he argued that Obama's aversion to drama led him to snuggle a bit too close to the Democratic Party's orthodoxy. But one of the more remarkable spectacles of the 2008 election - unprecedented in my time as a journalist - was the unanimity among Democrats on matters of policy once the personality...
...Obama's gut reaction was to go against his normal palliative impulse and to challenge the general instead. "I felt it was necessary to make that point ... precisely because I respect Petraeus and [Ambassador Ryan] Crocker," Obama said, after he reluctantly acknowledged that my reporting of the meeting was correct. "Precisely because they've been doing a good job ... And I want them to understand that I'm taking their arguments seriously." Obama endorses Petraeus' new post, as the commanding general at Central Command, with responsibility for overseeing both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. "He's somebody who cares about...
...Rather than worsen this obsession, it is possible that providing calorie information might correct false assumptions. For instance, a student may categorically assume that there are 115 calories in an ounce of cheese, when really the amount could be much less if it’s part-skim cheese, or more if it’s triple-cream cheese...