Word: crude
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Even with the boost from interest rates, the economy would remain a bit lackluster in 1986 if it were not for a lightning stroke of good fortune in the energy market. Since November the global oil-price war started by Saudi Arabia has sent crude prices sliding by about 50%. That decline will be responsible for about a third of this year's growth in GNP and will help control inflation. Said Walter Heller, chief economic adviser in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations: "The luck of the Irish is working overtime. Now Ronald Reagan can sing, 'Almost everything's going...
...risk of inflation has been sharply reduced, however, by the huge drop in petroleum prices. Last week the price for next-month delivery of West Texas Intermediate, a benchmark crude, closed at $16.01 per bbl., compared with $31.72 in November. Rimmer de Vries, chief international economist for Morgan Guaranty Trust, expects prices to average about $18 this year and next...
...plummet, traders despaired about the lack of a firm floor. "The market is in a careening tailspin," said one Manhattan oil-futures analyst. Warned another: "Put on your hard hat. The sky is falling." The price for next month's delivery of West Texas Intermediate, a major U.S. crude, plunged $3.39 on Monday and Tuesday to $15.44 per bbl., its lowest point since 1979 and a nearly 50% decline from just three months ago. Only toward the end of the week did the markets calm down a bit, and the price recovered part of its losses, to finish...
...cost oil could help the Federal Government deal with its debilitating budget deficit. As long as crude prices are falling, increased energy taxes would be a relatively painless way of raising money. In the Senate, New Jersey Democrat Bill Bradley has proposed tripling the current 9 cents-per-gal. gasoline tax, a move that he estimates would bring the Government an extra $15 billion a year. President Reagan conceded for the first time last week that he would listen to proposals for an energy tax, but only if it would be used for reducing other levies rather than purely...
...meantime, U.S. consumers should expect a break in their energy bills. But retail prices take about 45 days to respond to crude-oil declines because the fuel currently on sale was made with more expensive crude. The average U.S. price for regular unleaded gasoline is now $1.15 per gal., already down from a peak of $1.41 in 1981. While most filling stations have made no dramatic cuts yet, some experts think that the price could fall to 90 cents by late spring...