Word: crude
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Perhaps the greatest obstacle to accurate long range forecasting comes from the increasing possibility of future shocks which cannot be surmised from historical trends. Many petroleum analysts in the mid-'70s predicted world crude oil prices would hit a ceiling at $10 per barrel. Obviously, they did not foresee OPEC's tenacity or the Iranian revolution and subsequent supply disruption. The possibility of another significant oil supply shock within the next five years festered in the imagination of MR&A forecasters. The downfall of the present Saudi Arabian government looms on the horizon: "If CIA reports claiming the Soviet Union...
Late last summer, when MR&A met with representatives from Exxon's counterpart group, all the forecasters swapped stories about the energy future. Not surprisingly, the Exxon team perceived abundant demand and supply of petroleum generated through its synthetic fuels program, and less future need for electricity. Exxon's crude oil price forecasts for 1990, already made obsolete by the December 1979 price increases, strained the group's credibility. But the representatives brushed off charges of overly optimistic oil consumption forecasts and continued showing their charts and graphs. No hard feelings, of course: lunch time controversy focused on the dubious...
...fourth since the initial work appeared 46 years ago. It contains nearly 1,700 Peterson drawings and paintings of 575 species of birds-all native to the Eastern U.S. and Canada - on 136 color plates. Unlike the first guide, which Peterson now dismisses as "simple-minded and crude," descriptions run next to each bird rather than pages away. Another innovation: hundreds of range maps, drawn by Peterson's third wife, Virginia, 54, that show breeding grounds and winter and summer domiciles. There are also dozens of ornithological changes, at least one of which should disappoint baseball fans: the Baltimore...
Under pressure, the Saudis push up the cost of crude...
...show in Chicago consists of memorabilia and trinkets from the colonial years of the 19th century. Though they are of historical interest, few of them have any aesthetic dimension at all, and the effect tends to fluctuate between Trader Vic's and Portobello Road: old photos, crude portraits, a throne run up by a lo cal German carpenter in 1847 for King Kamehameha III. More recent currents in Hawaiian culture are sketchily represented by the attempts of living artists to make art based on aboriginal myth. These efforts at nostalgic revivalism look like airport...