Word: cuba
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...best outcome Washington can wish for is a sudden transformation of Cuba into an open-market democracy, preferably by evolution, though maybe by internal revolutionary upheaval. But it would be unwise to count on such a lucky break. For all his economic bungling, Castro retains strong political control and the loyalty of many Cubans, probably still a majority of them. The new surge of people fleeing is sometimes seen as the beginning of the end for Fidel, but it might equally provide him with a safety valve that drains away the most seriously discontented -- as well as illustrating once again...
Castro primarily has himself to blame for Cuba's current travails. Some reforms he instituted since mid-1993 had begun to pull the country back from the brink of disaster after the collapse of the Soviet bloc cut Moscow's aid from a torrent to a trickle and then to nothing. When he legalized individual private business last September, Havana suddenly sprouted plumbers, hairdressers, restaurateurs, repairmen and other overnight entrepreneurs permitted to work for themselves. But the July 1993 legalization of dollar holdings was a two-edged sword. It brought much needed hard currency into Cuba, but also split what...
...government-run bodega, complains that supplies are the leanest he has ever seen. "I don't see how they can send any less and expect us to survive," he says. He feels guilty when customers complain. "But what can I do?" he asks -- a depressingly familiar refrain throughout Cuba these days...
...with continued political control. While that would be far from ideal, it would still be in the U.S. interest to encourage it and seek through negotiation to promote political loosening too. The best way to do that would be to talk to Castro. Trade and investment that % might relieve Cuba's economic despair are the only ways to reduce the refugee flow permanently, even if Castro stays in power. His days of encouraging red revolution throughout the hemisphere are long since over; continuing to isolate Cuba only promotes hunger, desperation and floods of refugees that are not in anyone...
...support behind Clinton's decision to bottle up the refugees to keep the pressure on Castro. Mas Canosa insists that the Administration's economic crackdown and its refusal to deal with Castro will eventually embolden Cubans to drive him from power. "We all want a peaceful solution in Cuba, but that's not what Castro wants," he says. "He is leading the country toward a violent | period of change, which I think is inevitable...