Word: dakin
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Dates: during 1940-1949
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Harvard Club of Pocumtuck Valley: Winthrop S. Dakin, 54 Snell Street, Amherst...
...Rhythm's the Thing. In the cycle theory, the basic elements are trends and cycles. Trends are the long-term rates of growth, while cycles are the shorter up-&-down deviations which take place during the growth. Dewey & Dakin hold, along with Alvin H. Hansen and other "mature school" economists, that the end of the U.S. economy is leveling off, that it has matured. Consequently, the downswings of the cycles may become deeper because there is less & less new growth to counteract them...
...scores of cycles in the economy (each industry has its own), Dewey & Dakin have decided that four cycles, or rhythms, are basic. The four are: the 54-year, the 18⅓-year, the 9-year and the 41-month rhythm...
...important fact about cycles, say Dewey & Dakin, is that world wars, depressions and other economic cataclysms do not seem to change the rhythms. They may distort them, i.e., a cycle may go higher or lower, but its basic length is not changed...
...example, Dewey & Dakin contend that the building cycle reached its peak in late 1942. Because the cycle is now on the downgrade, the expected boom will probably not develop. In the last month, builders have jittered over the same thing. But they blame it on high prices. Dewey & Dakin say it was in the cards all along...