Word: davidowitz
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...outlook gets murky and experts' crystal balls differ. Karen Ghaffari, a managing director at Fitch Ratings, expects unemployment to peak in the second quarter at 10.4% before slowly starting to decline. "It will average 10.2% for the year," which will impact consumer spending and confidence, she says. Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a retail-consulting and investment-banking firm, is even more bearish, predicting unemployment will hit 11% before it peaks. "I think we're in for a very rough year...
...called underemployment rate, which includes the country's jobless as well as workers who have taken part-time jobs and those who have given up looking for work, is even higher, at about 18%, notes Davidowitz. "We're not adding jobs, we're losing jobs," he says. Davidowitz is predicting a double-dip recession, and if that happens, he sees little improvement in job growth, the credit markets or consumer confidence in 2010. "I don't see any increase [in retail sales] this year. However, he expects value retailers, such as Walmart, Kohl's, Target, TJX, Ross and Costco...
...Last year was the worst Christmas in 40 years and we're tracking below that right now," says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a retail consulting and investment banking firm.. "The whole [holiday season] will be determined by the last two days before Christmas...
Black Friday's business has left Davidowitz bearish on retailers' prospects this holiday season. "I expect total holiday sales will be down 1% to 2% - going against last year, which was the worst Christmas in 40 years...
...Davidowitz doesn't believe discounting will reach last year's 80% levels, mainly because most retailers ordered up to 20% less inventory this year. "They won't be as panicked or as big," he says. The 70% discounts will likely be offered on select items rather than store-wide, as they were last year...