Word: daytons
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...conventional wisdom about Bosnia runs like this: despite the overwhelming success in implementing the military provisions of the Dayton accords, those agreements will not lead to a single, unified Bosnia; rather they have merely deferred the resumption of war or, at best, provided an interim stage on the road to partition. The basis for this view is the uncertain pace of implementing the civilian aspects of Dayton--economic reconstruction, return of refugees, prosecution of war criminals, preparation for elections. How valid is the new pessimism...
...short answer is that, with eight months remaining in the year that NATO plans to stay in Bosnia, enough time remains to put the civilian side of Dayton into effect--provided those in charge are themselves fully committed to it. The Clinton Administration remains dedicated to this goal. But there are disturbing signs of backsliding from others, including some representatives of nations that signed the Dayton accords...
First, however, let's note that the military aspects of Dayton have been implemented almost completely with no loss of life to NATO forces from hostile action. The Bosnian Serbs pulled back on schedule. Sarajevo was united under Muslim control. No one--not even the negotiators at Dayton--would have dared predict this five months ago. Still, it is too early for self-congratulations. Other divided lands--Korea and Cyprus, for example--bear witness to temporary cease-fire lines that turn into permanent dividing lines...
Nothing is more galling about the post-Dayton behavior of suspected war criminals than the way some flaunt their freedom and stolen riches. Zeljko Raznatovic, who fought under the nom de guerre Arkan, is the most notorious of Serbia's paramilitary chiefs. He personally led his 200-odd Tigers through Bosnia to rape, torture and murder. Yet he has not even been indicted, and today he shows up all over Belgrade. He lives in a luxe marble mansion that he clearly did not buy out of earnings from his cafe. He is affiliated with Belgrade's biggest soccer club...
Although the Dayton accord has brought a bare minimum of peace to the Balkans, even that will not last if implementation of the civilian provisions fails, and none is more crucial than the one promising that the men who held the club and the gun will be arrested and tried. "How can I ever go home," says Hamdija, a Muslim refugee in Sarajevo, "if the man who killed my father goes free...