Word: defaults
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...repayment standstill on part of the sheikdom's $80 billion debt. The immediate issue is Dubai's inability to come through on a $3.52 billion tranche due in mid-December. Yet, with some 400 property projects already reportedly frozen in Dubai, the news raised the specter of a gigantic default that would sink exposed creditors around the world. "Inspired by Islamic artifacts," read the sheik's post on Twitter during a visit to the British Museum as share prices from Tokyo to New York City were about to plunge in response to Dubai's announcement. (See a story about Dubai...
...having trouble financing their deficits, or that investors will reassess their exposure to risky emerging markets in some kind of financial "contagion." BofA Merrill Lynch strategists postulated in a report that "one cannot rule out - as a tail risk - a case where this would escalate into a major sovereign-default problem, which would then resonate across global emerging markets...
...Dubai debacle triggered immediate concern about a new wave of financial problems rippling through global markets. Stock-market indexes plummeted, the cost of insuring against a default by Dubai jumped and the dollar strengthened as investors rushed back into greenbacks. On Friday afternoon, stock markets made something of a recovery as analysts took a second look at what Dubai's proposed repayment halt means. Eighty billion dollars - Dubai's total liabilities - may sound like a lot of money but in the context of the past year, it's not huge. And while banks like HSBC and Barclays have billions...
...haven't we seen more evidence of this yet? I think the media hasn't put it together, but it actually is starting. The default rate for the past 12 months is roughly 12% - that's very high. Half of those companies that have defaulted, according to Standard & Poor's, had some type of private-equity involvement in their corporate life. A lot of those are PE-owned companies, ranging from Chrysler to the Tribune Company to Simmons Bedding. We've already seen the tip of the iceberg...
...worried about? Unfortunately, private-equity firms infiltrated almost every industry - industrials, consumer goods, retail, hospitals, utilities - so a leveraged-buyout bust will be very widespread. TXU, which is now called Energy Future Holdings, one of the largest utilities in Texas, faces huge problems. They probably won't default on their debt until 2013, but at this point, and this is according to ratings agencies, it looks like they have very little chance of paying their debt. The range is from a huge utility like that to HCA, the largest hospital chain in the country...