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...Economists at Morgan Stanley believe the Fed rate cuts - past and future - are part of what it calls the "Great Global Monetary Easing of 2008," which will begin to spur a new round of worldwide growth next year. But getting from here to there is going to be painful. Demand for everything from iron ore mined in western Australia to toys manufactured in southeastern China is already slowing, because for the first time in decade, the "key driver of the global economy, the U.S. consumer, seems to have finally thrown in the towel," says Xie. If that's true...
...Whatever kind of correction the U.S. is headed for, policymakers don't want it to happen all at once. The Fed's rate cuts and the roughly $145 billion stimulus plan currently being mooted by the White House and Congress are all about pumping enough demand into the economy to make the journey downhill smooth and gradual. Consumer spending used to make up about 67% of all the economic activity in the U.S., but over the past few years, it's ratcheted up to around 72%. "If we take the 5 percentage points out this year, it will...
...including an overvalued housing market. A worldwide slump would be a special concern in poorer countries, says Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former finance minister of Nigeria who is now a managing director of the World Bank. Food prices there, she notes, are already being driven up in part by demand for biofuels, which is leading to the substitution of food crops by those that can produce fuel. If food stays expensive yet economies in Africa and elsewhere slow, there could be big trouble...
...news. Exporters would benefit, though they account for only 12% of the economy. A gradual global slowdown would also give the Fed far more room to maneuver without the threat of stoking inflation. But there are downsides too: the U.S. would see high energy prices as Asia's demand for oil kept soaring, a continued dollar slump as low interest rates made it less attractive to hold dollar-denominated securities, and the threat of rising inflation as a weak dollar made imports more expensive. And a global recession (generally defined as growth of less than 2.5%; since the Depression, global...
...Musharraf's autocratic government. Bhutto's untimely death leaves the Bush Administration with no clear strategy. The U.S. must follow up aggressively to make sure that Musharraf honors Bhutto's memory by continuing the democratic process for which she so bravely gave her life. President George W. Bush must demand that opposition leader Nawaz Sharif be allowed to run and that the fired Supreme Court judges be reinstated. American policy must be directed at building a strong democracy in Pakistan. Waris Shere, BANGALORE, INDIA...