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...Just how delicate? That depends on where the price of oil goes from here. The oil industry is already producing flat-out, and demand is still increasing?albeit not as quickly as last year?driven by increasing consumption in China, India and the U.S. Unless that demand cools, the fear is that prices will inevitably continue to surge. Analysts who expected global economic growth to slow?thus curbing some demand for crude?as oil passed $40 and then $50 per barrel have been proved wrong. "Warnings that [$50-a-barrel oil] would threaten a global downturn turned...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Peril at the Pumps | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...China goes, so goes much of Asia, because the mainland's booming demand is critical for regional industries as diverse as Malaysian palm oil, Korean steel and Japanese high-definition TVs. Optimists point out that the impact of the oil-price spike may be softened by the fact that coal, not oil, generates most of China's electricity, somewhat shielding its factories from the effect of rising oil prices. The government also limits the impact of rising fuel costs by dictating the price of gasoline and diesel at the wholesale level each month. Wholesale gas prices in China are currently...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Peril at the Pumps | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...crude with surprising ease so far. But $70, if that's where prices stick, is a different story. It's already clear, at least anecdotally, that the oil virus is finally beginning to have an impact on spending by U.S. consumers, who drive much of the world's demand. Wal-Mart, for example, has warned that its profits are already getting hit by high gasoline prices. And the retail giant may not be alone. According to the University of Michigan's monthly survey, released last Friday, consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped sharply in August, due mainly...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Peril at the Pumps | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...increasing the price of gasoline by 29%. In Thailand, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who last year resisted pressure to eliminate fuel subsidies during an election year, reversed course this year as the oil bills mounted. On July 12 he announced the end of subsidies, which he hopes will curb demand for oil imports that have wrecked Thailand's current account. Last year, Bangkok ran a $7.1 billion current-account surplus, versus a deficit of $6.2 billion in the first half of this year...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Peril at the Pumps | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...irrelevant? No, but this oil crisis is different. When OPEC choked off supplies in the 1970s and '80s, it set off a vicious circle of inflation, soaring interest rates and economic decline. But this time, oil prices are rising for the opposite reason: a big growth in demand, particularly from China, rather than a curtailing of supply. In addition, developed countries have generally reduced their dependence on oil as services have replaced manufacturing, while central banks have become smarter about nipping inflation in the bud. And critically, China's status as the low-cost workshop of the world helps lower...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Roll Out the Barrel | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

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