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...presidential election, a key question throughout the election has been whether polls overstate the support of black candidates. Fortunately for the Obama campaign, a new Harvard study finds that the senator may not have much to worry about. In November 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, was running ahead in the polls for governor of California and was feeling confident going into election day. Pre-election polling showed that he had a significant lead over his Republican opponent, and exit-polling conducted on the day of the election predicted that Bradley would emerge victorious. But when...

Author: By Niha S Jain, CONTRIBUTING WRITER | Title: Bradley Effect May Not Hold On Tuesday | 11/2/2008 | See Source »

...Ebbin, a Democrat who is now 44, was happy to oblige. (Full disclosure: in the mid-'90s, Ebbin and I knew each other briefly as colleagues; he sold ads for Washington City Paper, a weekly where I was a reporter.) Using Ebbin's expertise, the gay donors - none of whom live in Virginia - began contributing to certain candidates in the state. There were five benefactors: David Bohnett of Beverly Hills, Calif., who in 1999 sold the company he had co-founded, Geo-Cities, to Yahoo! in a deal worth $5 billion on the day it was announced; Timothy Gill...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Gay Mafia That's Redefining Liberal Politics | 10/31/2008 | See Source »

...Election Day that year, the Virginia legislature stayed solidly in Republican hands; the Democratic Party netted just one seat. But that larger outcome masked an intriguing development: anti-gay conservatives had suffered considerably. For instance, in northern Virginia, a Democrat named Charles Caputo (who received $6,500 from Ebbin's PAC) had beaten a Christian youth minister, Chris Craddock, by an unexpectedly large margin, with a vote of 56% to 41%. Three other candidates critical of gays were also defeated, including delegate Richard Black, who had long opposed gay equality in Richmond. Black had had no single donation as large...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Gay Mafia That's Redefining Liberal Politics | 10/31/2008 | See Source »

With less than a week of campaigning left, Democrat Barack Obama is holding stable or growing leads over Republican John McCain in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, according to a new set of TIME/CNN battleground-state polls conducted by Opinion Research Corp...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Obama Holds Leads in Key Swing States as Election Nears | 10/31/2008 | See Source »

...reasons known only to these contributors, the traditionally Republican defense sector is supporting a Democratic presidential candidate who may be bad for business," says Massie Ritsch of the independent Center for Responsive Politics, which came up with the numbers after analyzing Federal Election Commission data for the 2008 election cycle released October 27. "Defense contractors know that contributions lead to access, and that access can lead to government contracts." And they're going to keep coming if Obama wins Tuesday. "I don't see defense spending declining in the first years of an Obama Administration," one of the Democrat...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Obama Beats McCain in Defense Contributions | 10/31/2008 | See Source »

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