Word: deng
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...matter how hard the current leadership tries to forestall political challenge, Deng's demise will throw open the question of how to fill the space he leaves behind. Officially, that question has already been answered. Since 1989, Communist Party rulers have been laying the groundwork for a stable transition to a generation of leaders grouped around President Jiang Zemin, who was anointed by Deng as the core of a new collective leadership...
Since receiving Deng's mantle five years ago, Jiang, 68, has amassed nine major titles in the party, government and military. But monikers do not mean much in Chinese politics; during his retirement, the only title buttressing Deng's pervasive influence has been his honorary chairmanship of the China Bridge Association. What does matter is the raw calculus of power, a dynamic that can be as fickle as it is brutal. Since its founding in 1949, the People's Republic has had no fewer than six heirs apparent, not one of whom held that position for more than five years...
...secure the loyalty of his subalterns, especially the generals in the military. His base of support is so narrow that he may eventually find himself outfoxed by rivals with more experience and a stronger following. "We just don't believe Jiang is capable of commanding the necessary respect after Deng is gone," says Byron Weng, a political analyst at Hong Kong's Chinese University...
...powerful triumvirate beneath him could pose a strong challenge. The standard bearer of the liberal-reform faction, Zhu Rongji, 66, Deng's | economic czar, has watched his star soar as last year's GDP grew nearly 12%, to $509 billion. But despite admission by Marxist stalwarts that economic liberalization has saved China from the fate of the defunct Soviet bloc, the economy has become dangerously overheated. Zhu's tough measures to curb growth clearly stem from his sense of how directly his own power is tied to the nation's balance sheet. But in the process he has alienated military...
Durable Li Peng, 66, the widely disliked and authoritarian Premier, may be the least favored of Deng's lieutenants, but he has extensive ties to party bureaucrats and the conservative older generation. He continues to display an amazing talent for survival, weathering near universal vilification for his role in the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, which Deng backed but Li implemented. He also seems to have recovered from a heart attack last year to resume a front- rank position. Yet if Tiananmen is re-evaluated after Deng dies -- as it almost certainly will be -- the blame may fall...