Word: detroit
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...ensuing rise in gas prices and drop in sales underscored another weakness. Although gas-eating SUVs found a sweet spot in the U.S., for Detroit to assume a world in which gas prices would remain below $2 a gal. was asinine. In Europe, gas had long sold for more than $5 a gal., and tax policy ensured that it would stay there; the growing BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China - were driving up demand. Detroit's response was to lobby furiously against increasing fuel-economy standards instead of building more-efficient SUVs...
...What's Next The irony about being called on the carpet in Washington is that Detroit actually has a fairly clear idea of where it's going. Ford, for instance, under the leadership of Alan Mulally, has rationalized the company, dumping Jaguar, Aston Martin, Land Rover and some of its stake in Mazda. Volvo may be next. "We have streamlined all of the brands to focus on Ford," he says. Ford wants to be able to create small- and medium-size cars around the world from a single global blueprint. The initial product of the One Ford strategy...
...current crop of autos, including the revived Malibu, is the strongest of the Detroit Three's fleets in North America, but it is still truck-heavy. Globally, GM is expanding in Russia and China; it is a solid performer in Europe and South America. With the advent of the Chevy Volt in 2010, the company will be in a position to lead the industry into hybrid-electric and then fully electric vehicles. "There's enough good product in the pipeline," says MacDuffie. "Judged against the past, it's really impressive...
...most important issue is cutting Detroit's output to an appropriate level. "What we would tell a client who went from 30% to 20% [share] and they say, 'We're modeling now at 20%,' I'd say, 'Let's model it at 16%,'" says Conway. Scaling below capacity doesn't mean you give up on 20% or even 22% share - you can add shifts, for instance, to boost output...
...Reducing capacity could also go a long way toward solving Detroit's revenue problem. Between Detroit and the transplants, there are around 17 million units of manufacturing capacity in the U.S. In 2007 vehicle sales hit 16 million, but about 2 million of those were driven by the combination of easy credit and discount pricing. In a normal economy, the true size of the business may be closer to 15 million units. The Detroit Three simply have to generate more revenue per car and, not incidentally, a profit. Right now, the revenue gap per car is $4,000 vs. Toyota...