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...elevated pollsters to the status of prophets. And journalists sometimes forget that their prophecies come not from the heavens but from a branch of mathematics called probability theory, whose most obvious application is to gambling. The concepts are commonly introduced in statistic classes with reference to coin tosses and dice. It is hardly an exact science. Roughly one time out of 20 the typical pollster's finding will fall outside the stated margin of error. And even that assumes a flawless sample that will be exactly representative of the whole population and a 100% response rate -- conditions that are never...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Press: Do We Ask Too Much of Polls? | 2/19/1990 | See Source »

Former Secretary of Defense Harold Brown, a world-class thinker about the unthinkable and nobody's softy, acknowledged back in the 1970s that a Soviet decision to attack American missiles would be a "cosmic roll of the dice." Yet Soviets play chess; they do not shoot craps. Stalin advanced several black pawns and a knight against one of white's most vulnerable squares, West Berlin, in 1948. Nikita Khrushchev tried a similar gambit in 1961, and he was downright reckless over Cuba in 1962. The stupidity as well as the failure of that move contributed to his downfall...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Rethinking The Red Menace | 1/1/1990 | See Source »

...give a stong spine, a roulette wheel and dice...

Author: By B. K. Wenceslaus, | Title: Crimson Beneficence | 12/19/1989 | See Source »

...talking blues about a failed songwriter who decides the devil could not possibly be any worse than the music publishers and producers who have thwarted his career. A gambler, boozer, womanizer and general hellion, Markham tosses away eternity in exchange for a single, futile roll of the dice, then squanders what reprieves are offered in unrepentant revelry. He nonetheless stumps Satan twice, escaping the first time and settling down the second time into a perverse sort of domestic bliss. Markham's good-ole-boy world view is distasteful: women are treated as property, and both defeats of the devil depend...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Theater: Having A Hell of a Time | 12/18/1989 | See Source »

Vellucci questioned the desirability of such an arrangement. He asked the company's attorney if he played craps. When the attorney replied that he did not, Vellucci said, "When you roll the dice, you don't get prime rate back when you lose...

Author: By Michael P. Mann, | Title: City Councillors Angered By Stop & Shop Proposal | 12/12/1989 | See Source »

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