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...These days, Hu must be suffering from serious insomnia. When that meeting in Washington took place, China's economy was still expanding at a double-digit rate, creating enough jobs every year that many of the 20 million new job seekers who entered the market found some sort of gainful employment. Now GDP growth has dipped to around 9% and is expected to decline further as the worldwide financial crisis transmogrifies into a global recession. Already, scores of Chinese factories producing consumer goods like toys and plastics goods have shuttered in the southern industrial powerhouse of Guangdong, and thousands...
Last year, when finance professor Robert Schwartz decided to put together a conference on volatility in the markets, nobody knew just how timely it would be. In the past few weeks, triple-digit swings in the Dow Industrials have become a matter of course, as seasick investors watch stocks bound up and down, pounded by the day's news, and often, it seems, for no discernable reason at all. In the first few minutes of trading on Friday, stock indexes dropped 5% as the double whammy of deleveraging and a worldwide economic slowdown continued to buffet company shares...
When the global financial storm began to gather a year ago, China appeared to be a nation that was well supplied with raincoats. The economy was growing at double-digit rates, Chinese banks had little overseas exposure to the credit crisis, and the country's $1.9 trillion in hard-currency reserves stood as a vast emergency fund that could be drawn upon in the event of trouble. Just two months ago, while giant Wall Street and European banks were crumbling, China was relishing its role as host of the Olympic Games as the world paid tribute to its years...
...even when growing at a double-digit rate, China's economy is not yet large enough by itself to keep the global economy surging. The country accounts for only about 5% of total world GDP; the U.S. is responsible for 28%. "China's strength can help," says UBS's Wang, "but it's not enough to save the world." China may be lucky just to save itself...
...grown 30% to 35% during the past five years, reflecting the rapidly increasing demand for office, commercial and industrial space, as well as for bigger homes, now considered within the range of India's prospering working classes. But the economic juggernaut began slowing earlier this year because of double-digit inflation and a severe liquidity crunch (a fallout from the U.S. subprime crisis). Now economic activity may shrink as part of a global slowdown. The country's growth estimates of 9% at the beginning of the year have been revised to well below 7%, and the effect is directly visible...