Word: doled
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Like the Shah of Iran in his final days, Bob Dole's campaign doesn't have many places to set down. In almost every big state but Texas, there's an unwelcoming crowd on the ground. Michigan and Illinois? Not good. Likewise Ohio. Forget New York. Even Florida is tilting the wrong way. That suggests an explanation for the official version of the Republican endgame, the one Dole's campaign embarked on last week. It calls for a last-ditch effort to win California and its 54 electoral votes, even if that means neglecting smaller but more promising potential swing...
...there was Dole last week, running more or less for Governor of California. Energetic, pugnacious, he hit the ground in Riverside and Glendale to cheer on the state ballot initiative that would ban affirmative action. With California handling about half the nation's illegal aliens, he slammed Clinton for making changes in the new immigration law to bar states from denying medical assistance to illegals with aids. Dole promised more border guards along the highway that runs south from San Diego into Tijuana. If he didn't really feel inspired, he wasn't half bad at pretending...
...crowds turning out for Dole were sparse. But for comfort he has in-house poll numbers that show him continuing to gain ground in California. So is this one last grab for the gold ring, as his campaign insists? Or is it a soberly calculated admission of defeat--and a final effort on behalf of the G.O.P. by a man who has devoted his life to his party? In a panic over the prospect of losing the Republican Congress, Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour and House Speaker Newt Gingrich have been pushing Dole toward California, where 52 House seats...
...terms of congressional arithmetic, that route makes sense. Democrats need 20 more seats to take back the House. In California about half a dozen G.O.P. seats are vulnerable this year, among the most toss-up races in any state. If a halfhearted Dole effort there keeps Republican turnout low on Election Day, they could easily go Democratic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this is the lowest turnout in modern history," says G.O.P. pollster Frank Luntz. "That's where personal appearances [by Dole] can make a difference." Local Republicans haven't forgotten the 1992 presidential campaign, when George Bush gave...
...size takes a lot of heavy lifting. Closing a 10-point gap in the polls there means changing the minds of more than half a million voters, an enormous haul between now and Nov. 5. And changing those minds costs plenty in high-priced media markets Los Angeles. Also, Dole will have to make his message heard over the noise of other campaign spots in a year when, in addition to the clang of local congressional races, an estimated $100 million is being poured into advertising for and against 15 statewide ballot initiatives. The whole scheme is "a sign...