Word: dollar
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...addition of 10 new E.U. members this year, by the tussle over a new European Constitution and by the collapse of the Growth and Stability Pact, which imposed rigid discipline--overly rigid, critics say--on governments to curb deficits. Europeans are concerned about the impact of the falling dollar on their exports, but they have yet to take action to stem the tide. "Be patient with Europe," pleaded Blanque. After all, he said, economic-reform efforts in France, Germany and elsewhere are under way, but they will take time to yield tangible results...
...much time, said Tyson and Naim. "Europe has a tsunami coming its way this year," warned Naim. He predicted that as the weak dollar undermines European companies, European countries will be paralyzed by a clash between businesses urging far greater flexibility and unions and other groups seeking protectionist barriers. "This is the clash we're going to see emerging powerfully in Europe in the next 24 months," Naim said...
Should the Chinese currency--now pegged to the U.S. dollar--appreciate against the dollar? China is under growing pressure from the U.S. to adjust the rate or let it float. The argument, made vociferously by the White House, is that the current exchange rate artificially cheapens China's exports, to the detriment of American jobs and the U.S. trade deficit. The trade gap with China is more than $100 billion. Naim called the current rate of $1 to 8.3 yuan "the world's most dangerous number." At issue, he said, is whether it will change in an orderly manner...
There are other risks, none greater over the long term than the estimated $521 billion budget deficit. That's the biggest ever in dollar terms and, at about 5% of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest in more than a decade. The U.S. current-account deficit, which measures the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income and currency transfers, is also at a record high: about $550 billion for 2003. Last month the International Monetary Fund warned that these deficits pose "significant risks" for the U.S. and the world economy. Why? Because they are so large, they could...
...amounts of foreign direct investment--an eye-popping $53.5 billion last year. For months now, American economists and politicians have been fretting publicly over whether China is overheating, whether it is the next Asian meltdown-in-waiting and how long its currency can remain so blatantly undervalued against the dollar...