Word: dollarization
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...that eviscerated markets last week. The earlier rout was caused by continuing fears that governments were not sufficiently committed to prevent the world's finance and banking sector from collapsing - worries temporarily allayed by rescue plans announced over the weekend in Washington and Paris, and detailed in trillion-dollar-terms Monday. But the confidence those measures inspired in global markets has given way to more classic concerns among traders of a looming economic downturn - or quite probably recession - undermining the business activity and results of traded companies. That souring of spirits was evidenced Wednesday with indices sliding across Asia...
...amid the shocking developments of the past few months, the dollar has surprisingly gained strength. It has rallied more than 16% against the euro since its trough in early July and made impressive advances against the Australian dollar, South Korea's won and other currencies. There's a fairly simple explanation for this: it's not that people want to own dollars, its just that they want to own the alternatives even less. There's certainly nothing mysterious about the dollar's recent strength against the euro. Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2008, the dollar lost 19% against...
...Less obvious is the support the dollar is getting from an unlikely quarter: global hedge funds and other nonbank financial entities. This shadow banking system has borrowed trillions of dollars to leverage its investments. But the crisis has triggered massive early loan repayments, and because these loans must be repaid in the U.S. currency, demand for the dollar has increased, driving up its value. It's not just hedge funds that are affected. Foreign banks, which hold $12 trillion in dollar assets and liabilities, are also in the process of deleveraging...
...this helps to explain why the dollar has been stronger lately. But with the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again and the U.S. Mint running its printing presses overtime to fund rescue packages, won't the dollar tank soon? Probably not. As the Treasury Department's $700 billion bailout plan is implemented, banks should begin to be able to restructure their balance sheets and regain the capacity to make loans at interest rates that will be attractive at home and abroad. While a U.S. recession looks unavoidable, the stabilization of the financial system should allow a recovery to begin...
...what's really good for the dollar is China, which has a couple of solid reasons to help maintain the stability of the U.S. currency. One is that China is one of America's biggest creditors; the country holds some $519 billion in U.S. Treasury bills (second only to Japan's $593 billion), and it doesn't want to see these investments eroded by a slumping dollar. In addition, China is increasingly worried that an economic slump in the U.S. and Europe will curtail its export growth, dealing the Chinese economy a serious blow. To keep the prices...