Word: dollarization
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Those are strong words for what, going strictly by the numbers, has been nothing more than a retracing of the dollar rally that followed last fall's financial panic. When investors around the world got scared late last year, they poured money into U.S. Treasury securities that they perceived to be safe. That drove up the dollar. Then, after a few months, investors began taking risks again, putting money back into the U.S. stock market and into all sorts of investments in the rest of the world. So the dollar fell. (See 10 things you didn't know about money...
...still hasn't fallen even with the levels of summer 2008. So why all the hullabaloo? Why the sky-is-falling talk? Part of it is political. When you hear Republicans trying to pin the dollar's troubles on the Obama Administration, for example, it's worth remembering that the dollar has been on a downward trend since 2002. There's also a noisy colony of goldbugs and other Cassandras who are always predicting the dollar's demise...
Still, it's not just partisan hacks and Chicken Littles who are worried about the dollar. There are (at least) three good reasons to fret. First, the events of the past 14 months have made predictions of impending economic doom seem a lot more credible than they used to. When Faber forecasts not only a worthless dollar but also a "collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today," it's impossible to dismiss him out of hand. Second, the data point that has dollar worriers most alarmed - burgeoning U.S.-government debt - is for real. Finally, the global monetary...
There's not much to add to the first point - that really bad stuff can happen - other than to note that capitalism has just experienced the equivalent of a meteor near miss. But the second and third points demand more explanation. The reason a big federal debt undermines the dollar is that a government with really big debts will be tempted to inflate its way out by printing money to pay creditors. Printing more dollars (the process actually involves the Federal Reserve's purchasing government securities with dollars it conjures out of thin air) reduces the value of existing dollars...
Then there is the creaky contraption that is the global monetary system. Since the early 1970s, the world's major currencies have generally been allowed to float freely against one other, but lots of emerging-market countries link their currencies to the dollar. They began doing this to secure a bit of stability in turbulent currency markets...