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...yeah. A bear market. Check out the chart. The Dow Jones industrial average, which hit an all-time closing high of 11,723 on Jan. 14, has sunk as much as 16% and in sawtooth fashion has been hitting lower highs since March. The NASDAQ got it much worse. Yes, the rally we've been enjoying the past few weeks has been impressive, fueled by unexpectedly weak economic reports that have, for now, rubbed out inflation fears. Possibly this rally will persist and break the bear-market pattern. But it hasn't yet. Don't rush to redeploy all your...
...June low and the highest point reached in July, August or September. By that measure there is a rally not just every summer, but every season. And get this: seasonally speaking, the summer rally is the least exciting. Yale Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, studied seasonal Dow moves back to 1964 and found that, on average, the summer rally was good for a 9.7% gain. But the autumn rally--August or September low to the high reached in October, November or December--averaged 10.4%. The winter rally averaged 14%; the spring rally...
...summer of 1998 - investors' neuroses kicked in. Suddenly, the worry wasn't that Alan Greenspan would raise rates again at month's end. It was that he'd already gone too far. Tech selling slid the NASDAQ down on the news, and financials did the same to the Dow. Consumers, the heroes of the expansion and the villains of the overheat, are closing their wallets. Have they opened the door to a recession, thanks to the Fed's prodding...
There have been only four bear markets in the past two decades, and during each the Dow Jones industrial average declined 24% on average. But traditional defensive groups did better than that, according to a survey of 100 industry groups by Florida-based Ned Davis Research. Tobacco was down only 9%. Food producers dipped 12%, and grocery chains fell only 10%. Household-product companies dropped 15%. Drug stocks were off 19%. Electric utilities declined between 5.7% and 8.7%, depending on the region...
...particular, are solid defensive sectors because they are a good value, provide stable profits and are less affected by economic slowdowns. Best Foods shares rose 50% in the past month on rumors of a possible takeover by Unilever. Johnson & Johnson has gained more than 20%, nearly doubling the Dow's gains, in the past three months. Electric utilities, which also pay above-average dividends, have been rallying strongly. The Dow Jones utility average is up nearly 18% since mid-March...