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...answer: Yes, but not in the ways you think. At least advertising will become more interesting, predicts Jay Chiat, who made his name with groundbreaking ads for Apple and Nike. Business editor Bill Saporito, who oversaw half this package, mediated a sometimes testy debate about whether the Dow will ever hit 50,000. On one side: Robert Shiller, author of the just published Irrational Exuberance. On the other side: Kevin Hassett and James Glassman, who made a splash last year with their book, Dow...
...totally logical, say economist Kevin Hassett and journalist James Glassman, who argue in Dow 36,000 that stocks are both safe and undervalued. Not so fast, says Yale economist Robert Shiller, whose Irrational Exuberance says the market is headed for decades of trouble. The two sides had it out in a TIME debate...
...emphatically that stocks are undervalued today and that people could hold them and feel comfortable. You can use different assumptions and get a 55,000 Dow, but we are very comfortable with 36,000. And, in fact, most people don't have enough stocks in their portfolio...
SHILLER I didn't say "terrible crash." That is one plausible scenario, but other plausible scenarios are that [the Dow] will go up for a while and then just kind of hover for many years and give a low return. My book uses a 10-year horizon, which is viewed as the really long term. Ten to 20 years, it looks like we will have poor runs, maybe in the negative for 20 years--there is a good chance of that. In periods of high P/Es [price-to-earnings ratios, a measure of how expensive stocks are], stocks have done...
GLASSMAN I just think people should know that in 1990 the Dow was at 2,600. In 1995 it [finished] at 5,100. Now, if you are Bob, you would say, "Whoa, we are about to have another crash like 1929." What has it done since the end of 1995? We are now, as we sit here, above 11,000 [the Dow closed at 10,609 last week], so I don't think it is predictive to say simply that if the Dow triples, it is going to crash. In the past 18 years, the Dow has risen...