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Getting nervous? In the past two weeks, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen 529 points, a drop of nearly 10% since its August peak, punctuating a dismal third quarter. Investors are hoping--praying might be a better word--that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will decide against the third interest-rate hike of 1999 when the central bank's Open Market Committee meets this week...
...would raise interest rates, the markets finally let their guard down ? and got a nasty shock. No, Alan Greenspan didn?t hike 'em a third straight time. But he let everybody know he?s watching, moving the Fed?s bias toward tightening and sending a recently resurgent Dow into an instant 100-point mini-tailspin (thus smothering an earlier rally and ending the day even). "It?s a clear signal that the bank is concerned that the economy isn?t slowing down fast enough," says TIME senior economics correspondent Bernard Baumohl. "Consumer spending hasn?t slowed enough. The world economy...
...long as big companies are throwing their weight around again, traders don?t even have time to worry about the Fed (meeting tomorrow. The smart money?s on no rate hike). Sprint shares were hopping Monday on the news of a duel for the maiden?s hand, and the Dow and NASDAQ alike were following suit. At least some folks still know the value of a wheelbarrow-ful of the green stuff...
...veritable glut of news--a war here, an earthquake there, interest rates falling or rising, the introduction of a new wonder drug--we are forced to pick and choose what is important enough to notice. We analyze the booming economy and judge it to be healthy because the Dow Jones closes at a record-breaking 11,000, but ignore the widening chasm between rich and poor; we latch on to the fact that this will be the most expensive presidential race in history, but decline to pay attention to falling voter turnout. More and more often, we gravitate towards...
...really done much since April," says Baumohl. "Investors here are looking at the beginnings of a recovery in Asia and Japan, and suddenly they feel very overweighted in dollar assets." That means dollars and U.S. equities are getting dumped for yen and Japanese ones. If it keeps up, the Dow could easily dip below that vaunted 10,000 sometime this fall, but Baumohl doesn?t see the end of the U.S.? recent golden age. "I still don?t think the Fed is going to raise rates," he says, "and the economy is still fundamentally very solid." And what...