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Though most of the Oct. 27 drop in the stock market was recouped the next day, prices have remained volatile. Sinai thinks, however, that the Dow Jones industrial average would have to sink to 7000 (vs. levels over 8200 at its August peak and about 7700 in mid-November) and stay there for a year to make people feel so poor that they would cut consumer spending sharply. Weinberg, meanwhile, sees a silver lining in market volatility. It may dissuade "Gladys and Gary in Indiana" from borrowing from their mutual fund or ira to buy a car or house. That...
Seven years ago, Michael O'Higgins, a successful if inconspicuous money manager, thrilled the investment world with a simple formula for generating superior returns: Buy the dogs. He discovered that if you buy the 10 stocks among the Dow 30 with the highest yields (dividend divided by price) and updated the portfolio once a year, the returns would triple those posted by the Dow Jones industrial average over the previous two decades. O'Higgins' 1991 book, Beating the Dow, was an instant hit and spawned a cultlike following. There are two Websites, three mutual funds, dozens of Unit Investment Trusts...
Midway through last week, the Dow 10 had returned 16.9% this year, vs. 22.9% for the Dow. The high yielders underperformed in two of the three previous years as well. Say it ain't so, Mike. But he won't. In fact, he's one of the first to note that his dogs of the Dow--so named because high yields signal out-of-favor stocks--"have become too popular and the market has become too high" for the gambit to keep working. O'Higgins is now writing another book and next month will launch a mutual fund...
FORTUNE Business Report delivers the goods ? and the goodies ? from the day's trading. Wednesday: another drab day for the Dow...
...Fooey on the Dow day" as tonight's FORTUNE Business Report dissects a lackluster day of trading in which our favorite index proves rather un-representative...