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...Many Wall Street analysts are predicting an upswing on the grounds that nervous investors will eventually decide that the worst is over for the economy and begin buying shares again. At its close at 616 on the old year's final trading day last week, the battered Dow Jones industrial average was up 38 points from its 1974 low (578 in early December), and some forecasters were suggesting that the average could grope its way upward another 200 points or so over the next twelve months...
...investors as in the stock market of 1974. As traders worried about virulent inflation and mounting evidence of recession, many common stocks dropped to prices not seen since the 1950s. Rallies were brief and whimsical, reflecting sporadic technical adjustments rather than any lasting return of investor confidence. The Dow Jones industrial average sank to two twelve-year lows in two months, most recently on Dec. 6 when it dropped to 578. It closed last week at 593, up 15 points for the week but still 31% below the start of the year and fully 459 points below its alltime high...
Partly because the past year was so bad, the outlook for 1975 is somewhat brighter. If nothing else, analysts say, stock prices have discounted just about all the bad news that can be realistically expected and are due for an upturn, perhaps by spring, that could gradually push the Dow to around 800 by year's end (no higher than it was in early 1964). Their major reason: as the worsening recession bites into corporate profits and the rate of inflation, investors will sense that the economy is about to bottom out and will begin buying in advance...
Even before the year began, stocks had taken one of their worst skids in history. Pressured by the Arab oil embargo, swelling uneasiness over Watergate and the worsening specter of inflation, the Dow lost some 180 points in 60 days toward the end of 1973. The widely followed indicator rose to its 1974 high of 892 in March, then began a perilous saw-toothed decline that seemed almost irreversible (see chart...
...long blamed for driving investors out of stocks and into such interest-bearing securities as bonds and Treasury bills, began easing in early fall, but stocks still went down. The week after the Ford Administration staged its televised economic summitry in September, investors showed their skepticism by pushing the Dow below 600 for the first time since...