Word: dowe
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...economy is slowing down. Consumer confidence is fading fast, along with PC sales, auto sales, manufacturing output, factory orders, orders for durable goods, incomes, retail sales - and portfolios. Wealth effect? With a week of sessions left in the trading year, NASDAQ is down 35 percent for the year, the Dow maybe 7 percent. This, remember, was the year the bubble burst for a nation of insta-millionaire dreamers...
...Dow might well have hopped at that; as it is, Fed funds futures - the Greenspan casino - went into the meeting with a small bet on the cut, and the bias-only move is likely to eat up Monday's 200-point rally by week's end. The NASDAQ, meanwhile, will continue to mutter about its own issues, wondering only incidentally if the tech sector will prop the rest of the economy up or drag it even further down...
...ahead next are energy (if oil stays over $25 per bbl.) and regional banks (if severe credit problems don't surface and the Fed cuts rates). Get rid of margin debt, definitely. And lower your expectations for future returns. But stay invested. Everyone in my small survey expected the Dow to be hitting new highs sometime next year...
...Even the markets are acting liberated. With some encouraging words from Alan Greenspan at their backs, the Dow surged 300 points and NASDAQ 200 by noon, as if the twin prospects of a president and lower interest rates had made all seem right with the world...
...NASDAQ is down 40% from its all-time high and down 26% for the year. The Dow and broader market gauges are down for the year too. With so much damage on the books, it would require superhuman restraint by investors not to greet future rallies with some selling in a bid to get even and get out, or just take some risk off the table...