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...growth rates of 50%. And in some sense, Cisco is the beneficiary of a virtuous cycle, so to speak, in which the very innovations that make its own products faster and increase the supply of bandwidth also supercharge demand for bandwidth, as faster computers mean we will want to download more video, more music and more of everything--all through Cisco-powered networks. "The user is the slowest link in the chain," says Varian. "We're limited by our biological perception--we can only read so fast, music only makes sense at a certain speed. But in terms of computers...
Right, but you have to be careful what you download. Any fool--or charlatan--with a telephone, modem and computer can create a decent-looking website. Result: an epidemic of Internet snake oil, featuring discredited cancer "cures" like laetrile staging a comeback, $200 "second opinions" with more disclaimers than a sky-diving class, and incompetent "diagnoses" from self-styled "professors" and "academicians" at $50 or so a pop. What's next? An e-auction site for an appendectomy or laser eye surgery...
...more like a skeptical consumer. "There's a lot of plumage here, but I wonder if the beast underneath isn't still pretty scrawny," he says, pointing out that the Net is still too slow and hard for many people to use. King, a Macintosh user, couldn't download his book, which came out only in PC-readable formats. "This is a good illustrative example of all the potential that so-called e-commerce has, and then the reality of the situation," he says. "In point of fact, what e-commerce has been selling for the past five years...
...this MP3 thing"--referring to the digital-music format that allows people to swap their favorite tunes online. Wasserman went to the website MP3.com converted three songs he had written and recorded with Fisher into the format and uploaded them. Now, people could come to the site and download the songs for free. Fisher was about to become the biggest Internet-based band ever...
...indie acts trying to make themselves heard, life won't get any easier. Someday, the labels hope, consumers will walk up to Web-enabled kiosks in convenience stores and airport terminals, punch in a credit-card number and instantly download two new Mariah Carey songs onto a cassette the size of a pencil tip. When that happens, who's going to bother trawling through thousands of MP3s for the next Fisher? That's why, sitting at a Melrose Avenue cafe early this year, Fisher and Wasserman seemed more relieved than elated. There are now at least 1 million songs available...