Word: downturn
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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Thumbs Down. On the other hand, economists point out that the indicators have not missed calling a single downturn since World War II. Some sound the alarm ten to twelve months ahead, while others point up short-term trends over three to six months. In the past, whenever the indicators have been misleading, it has often been the long-term leaders that pointed down while the short leaders continued to show strength. Last week both long and short leaders were weak. On this basis, such highly respected economists as Vice President Beryl Sprinkel of Chicago's Harris Trust & Savings...
...have ticker tapes running through their living rooms, so they are less likely to get swept up in panic." And George Whitney, a trustee of Massachusetts Investors Trust, believes that in the long run Blue Monday may have the same effect on the funds as the 1937 downturn -which produced a 13% sales gain for M.I.T. If nothing else, however, the post-crash performance of the mutuals should serve as a reminder to investors that a careful study of the track record is just as necessary in buying fund shares as in buying common stocks...
...days' supply on hand six years ago to 44 days' supply now) should be cut further. For the economy as a whole, this should be all to the good. Though cautious inventory buying has contributed to the sluggishness of the latest recovery, it may make the next downturn less severe, because businessmen will have less inventory fat to work off before they must start stocking up again...
...urging. With U.S. business and labor already on record for a slash. M.I.T. Economist Paul Samuelson, a close Kennedy adviser, wrote a strongly worded article for London's influential Financial Times in which he predicted that the odds are ''at least even that a new downturn will come before the year's end-unless new Government action is taken." His recommendation, duly reported in the U.S.: "A sizable across-the-board reduction in tax rates on persons and corporations." Samuelson was so disturbed by the U.S. economy's state that he even hazarded some political...
...economists are soberly reconsidering their timetables for recession. Many who had originally predicted that the recovery would run through most of next year now figure that it will run out of steam in early 1963, or even in late 1962. Chase Manhattan Bank Economist William Butler expects a downturn to occur by Christmas. General Electric Co., which had expected that the economy would go on improving till next spring, is now operating on the assumption that it will begin to top out in this year's last quarter...