Word: downturn
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...this current downturn as well, Walker's dim views, which at first seemed on the fringe, now appear less farfetched. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in late January revised its forecasts for 2009 sharply downward, predicting the slowest global growth rate since World War II, at only 0.5%. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said he expects "the global economy to come to a virtual halt." Even China would record only 6.75% GDP growth in 2009, according...
...Other economists believe China's massive stimulus plan will keep growth at a high level despite the global downturn. In November, Beijing announced a $586 billion package, much of it new spending on infrastructure. Wen Jiabao, China's premier, said recently that he expects China to meet its 8% growth target for 2009. Walker, however, is much more skeptical about the government's ability to rescue the economy. "What the government has to contend with is a slowdown in every other sector of the economy," he says. Since the Chinese government accounts for only some...
...region and the world. The hope among other economists was that trade within Asia, with a stable China at its core, could spare exporters such as Taiwan and South Korea from the worst of the recession in the West. That hope, Walker argues, has evaporated. A major downturn in China "takes the floor away" from growth in the rest of Asia, he says, leaving the region more exposed to the woes of the U.S. and Europe. Most vulnerable are Asia's smaller, trade-dependent economies. He forecasts Taiwan and Singapore could see GDP sink...
...There are some bright spots. Walker is relatively bullish on India, which he believes could growth 3% to 5% in 2009, possibly making it the world's fastest-growing economy. The reason, he says, is India isn't as exposed to the global downturn as China. "India has not been growing in the past decade because of excess world growth," Walker says. "Domestic demand is the strong component." He also argues that Asia could take the lead in a global recovery, and might show signs of an upturn by early 2010. The turnaround will be sparked by Asian companies, which...
...initial remarks, Faust discussed Harvard’s future, citing her optimism about recently inaugurated president Barack Obama as well as the sobering reality of the global economic downturn...